GOPWithHer

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#GOPWithHer’s Official Electoral Map Prediction

Ok folks, here goes. Our thoughts have always been that if Hillary wins, it is more likely to come as a (relative) landslide than a narrow win. A close election favors Donald Trump and the prospect for that is too horrifying to let play out. Besides, there’s plenty of sites that will tell you what a close race looks like.

Here’s our best estimate (hope?) for how election night shapes up:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Some explanations:

I’m reasonably confident in this map based on three factors:

1. Latino surge gives Hillary a major boost in Florida and Arizona (which is a reach, but Latinos in Arizona are absolutely blowing away their 2012 levels).
2. Republican women in Ohio and Michigan fight off Trump’s incursions with their husbands.
3. Unbelievable Clinton ground game advantage (basically well oiled machine VS nothing) pushes her over the finish line in North Carolina, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

I think Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania will be the closest they’ve been in decades, but ultimately no cigar.

My guess is Florida will also be close, but not like in the past. Just way too many bad hombres and nasty Republican women that Trump has insulted and demeaned for 15 months that his Cuban support is the weakest its been for a Republican candidate in several cycles and female Republicans offset the angry white men he gets to come out of the woodwork. Also keep an eye on the “no political alliance” voters in Florida which skew more minority heavy than the rest of the electorate.

In North Carolina, African American early vote has been down, but that was also the case in Florida which ended up seeing significantly more Black voters than 2012. My guess is there is an African American surge in North Carolina, driven partially by Clinton’s ground game and righteous indignation over the voting shenanigans pulled by the state that kept a lot of polls closed during the first few days of early voting. Also, increases in college-educated whites and Asians in the research triangle means white vote in North Carolina looks more like Virginia than South Carolina.

Iowa isn’t really that close in the end.

Trump gets his 1 electoral vote from Maine. Way to go, jerk.

Wild Cards:

Arizona – I don’t really feel good about this. This is a reach, but made possible by shockingly close polls, plus Latino surge which makes the electorate look different from those polls.

Georgia – really close polling here + Latino surge (albeit much smaller portion of the population than Arizona and Florida) make it interesting. More likely than not to stay red, but humiliatingly close.

Texas – Trump will win. But also, closest it’s been…EVER.

Alaska – believe it or not, the most recent telephone poll in Alaska actually had Clinton AHEAD. There’s also some weird issue with Trump’s incompetent campaign somehow screwing up the ballot for him. Also the Inuit population is…not enamored with Trump. High likelihood they would not be showing up in phone polls as well.

Ultimate net margin of victory for the national vote: 5.5% with Trump’s worst nightmare coming true as Latinos get revenge for his idiotic taco bowl photo and 50,000 other indignities suffered during this horrific election cycle.

Despite the map, I expect a lot of close races in swing states. The national margin comes more from running up the score in places like Texas, California, Georgia…places that ultimately won’t make a difference in the Electoral Vote.

Fake News Headline on Wednesday Morning: Bad Hombres and Nasty Women Defeat Angry White Man to Send First Woman to White House.

Republicans Around America Are Rejecting Trump: Part 4

This is the fourth in what will be a multi-part series of thoughts and images from Republicans rejecting Donald Trump around the United States. Are you #GOPWithHer? Leave us a comment below or tweet us @GOPWithHer and we’ll get your image and story online! The resistance is real and it’s GROWING!

sarabeth

“My oldest child is in fourth grade. We talk about civics and what it means to be a good citizen. I refuse to tell my children I voted for a candidate who is a bully, a bigot and an abuser.” #gopwithher #nevertrump

Sarabeth, Ohio

Republicans Around America Are Rejecting Trump: Part 2

This is the second in what will be a multi-part series of thoughts and images from Republicans rejecting Donald Trump around the United States. Are you #GOPWithHer? Leave us a comment below or tweet us @GOPWithHer and we’ll get your image and story online! The resistance is real and it’s GROWING!

image1

“I’m a pro-life evangelical, straight-ticket Republican voter, but this year I simply cannot do it. As a Christian, an attorney, a mother, a woman, a Republican, and simply as a human being–everything in me protests Donald Trump. I don’t know what the future holds for the GOP and conservative American ideals, but I can clearly see that Trump at the helm spells its demise. He must be defeated.”

Rachel, Ohio

Hillary/Trump Debate LiveBlog: Round 3!

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IT’S FINALLY ALMOST OVER.

Join us at 10 minutes to 9 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 19th, for our LIVE coverage of the THIRD Presidential Debate. There will be alcohol. And almost certainly YET another Trump meltdown. But at least it’s the last one!!!! Sweet mercy is almost here!

Hillary Strikes Debate Night Blow

Monday night was a horror show for many Republicans across the country, myself included. To see Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as the two candidates on the debate stage was a living nightmare for me. With that said of the two people on the stage, it was clear that Hillary Clinton was the more qualified; both on policy and temperament to be President of the United States of America.

 

Clinton VS Trump

Hillary had Trump on the ropes from the “opening bell”. With Trump backpedaling on defense and with the spotlight shining on only two candidates, Mr. Trump was not able to debate in his typical “smoke and mirror” style. When pressed for specific policy answers by moderator Lester Holt or by Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump seldom had an answer deeper than “because we will”.

Hillary hammered Trump on his “birther history” and deftly tied that into his and his family’s history of racism through their discriminatory rental history. Mr. Trump has to set the record straight, why does he think President Obama wasn’t born in this country? Why did he and his father not rent to African-Americans in the 1970s?

The debate showed us what we have all feared to be true. Trump simply does not have the temperament to be POTUS. His eye-rolls, sarcasm, and body language were anything but presidential. You can say a lot of things about Mrs. Clinton (such as the fact that she is dead wrong on the Iran deal and ending stop and frisk), but she keeps proving that she has presidential temperament.

As someone who works for a small business, it was appalling to me to hear Trump say that it was okay not to pay a contractor if you are not satisfied with their work. Small businesses depend on progress and final payments to pay their bills and feed their employees’ families. Is Mr. Trump saying that a contract is not binding? We need an answer to this question.

“The Donald” lied again regarding his support of the War in Iraq. Thanks to Howard Stern’s interviewing prowess, we have recordings of Mr. Trump on the record stating his support for the war which he now says he was against. Will he answer why he continues to lie about this?

Trump also never responded to Hillary’s claims that his tax plan will add $5 trillion to the national debt. He needs to answer this question, if not we must assume that this assertion is true.

The bottom line is this is the Worst. Election. Ever. Hillary is a very flawed candidate, but is someone that I would trust with the nuclear codes much more than Mr. Trump. To me this is the deciding factor when faced with two terribly flawed candidates. As a party, we must work to heal from the Trump disaster and focus on common sense economic reform and keeping our country safe. #NeverTrump #GOPWithHer

 

#DumpTrump is Dead. Long Live #GOPWithHer.

We never thought it had much of a chance, unfortunately. It was a valiant effort from our brothers and sisters at the convention floor today and during the Rules Committee meetings last week, but it’s been clear for a long time that Donald Trump has some kind of horrific blackmail images of Reince Preibus assaulting a baby seal while pledging allegiance to the Taliban.

This website was set up in May, with the sincerest hope that we would never actually reach this point. We have been dreading this every moment of every day since the Indiana primary farce.

And yet, here we are.

It's going to be a long couple of weeks.

It’s going to be a long couple of weeks.

Now what, guys? There’s no one left to stop this insanity. The fight on the floor of the convention at least showed the world that we are NOT a united party. So there’s that. But it’s time to get serious.

With word out there from Trump’s ghostwriter that if he wrote “The Art of the Deal” today he would call it “The Sociopath,” what are we to do? Fall in line with these Soviet-style tactics from the Republican “leadership” ? Vote for Donald Trump to gain command of the most powerful military in the history of humanity? NO THANK YOU.

It may take a lot of alcohol, but we’re with her.

Embrace the horror and keep checking back here for updates from us as we live blog our way through what is sure to be a disgusting Donald Trump nomination acceptance speech on Thursday night.

Oh and if you’re out there today (or any other day) chanting “We want Trump” – you are a huge tool. Vote for the guy grudgingly if you must, but to be INSPIRED by this con man thief? GTFO of here.

#NeverTrump

#GOPWithHer

#NeverTrump: Why as a Republican I can never vote for Donald Trump

#NeverTrump

Donald Trump is the worst major candidate of my lifetime, maybe anyone’s lifetime. That’s why I’m #NeverTrump.

 

Editor’s note: I was recently told by a family member that the reason I’m #NeverTrump is because of his obnoxious “TV persona” as opposed to the actual “substance” of his campaign. This post (and in fact this entire website) was my response. Feel free to fact check anything here, it’s all accurate.

 

My opposition to Donald Trump’s candidacy is about much more than just his TV persona and his divorces. Oh my. So much more. For the sake of argument let’s, for a minute, discount his past behavior. That means ignoring the following:

 

His Past Behavior

 

Five bankruptcies (for a guy whose main claim to fame is his “genius” business mind), multiple divorces (and disgusting behavior on his part that led to them), the TV persona, his fake alpha male, fake tough guy, fake testosterone “I’m a better man than you” routine which makes me sick, running Atlantic City into the ground, RAMPANT support for eminent domain (which I HATE) when the only “public good” is for citizens named Donald Trump – despite running as the nominee of the party that supposedly cares about individual rights!

But wait, there’s more…

The Trump University scam, vitamin scam, multiple brands the he blessed with his name being run terribly, usage of illegal immigrants to build Trump Tower, being obsessed with Obama’s birth certificate and making it a campaign issue in 2012 (not even 2008 when it might have mattered!), being open to the idea that autism might be related to vaccines along with 9/11 conspiracy theories, opening up a mortgage company in (late!) 2006, contributing money to Democrats and Republicans including to HILLARY CLINTON HERSELF IN 2008!! Saying that Hillary is a “great” Secretary of State… AFTER THE LIBYA MESS!!!!! And on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on…

 

#NeverTrump

What would Ronald Reagan say about Donald Trump? #NeverTrump.

His Positions

 

But let’s discount that. Let’s JUST talk about what he SAYS he’s going to do. Let’s assume for a minute that he BELIEVES ANY of what he says. He’s suddenly pro-life, he suddenly loves the Bible, he suddenly cares about the border. After 70 years he’s suddenly a born-again Republican. All of these things he’s suddenly so passionate about…let’s examine his “platform” and see if I agree with what he wants to do:

 

National Defense

Let’s start with the most basic thing a President needs to do. Keep us from being murdered by foreign states. His plan for keeping us safe is to…………

…ban Muslims? That’s Trump’s plan? Actually is that even his plan anymore? How will he determine who a Muslim is, exactly? He will order the military to kill wives and children of terrorists? Does it matter that that’s an ACTUAL war crime? He wants to get out of NATO? He thinks we shouldn’t have soldiers in Germany and South Korea? That Japan and Saudi Arabia should get their own nukes? Is he #$%#$^ING KIDDING ME???? The US is no longer interested in nuclear non-proliferation for the first time since…1945? This is actual insanity.

Then he wants to “bomb the $#!% out of ISIS” and wipe them out – but not commit ground soldiers. This is impossible. He also wants to “take the oil” from Iraq and Syria where ISIS is. Also without ground troops somehow. How will he defend the oil fields while the oil is being loaded onto the trucks? Who knows. This is impossible. And also immoral.

And that’s aside from his incoherence on the “nuclear triad” and on literally EVERY. SINGLE. QUESTION he has even been asked about foreign policy or national defense. I watched every Republican debate except for one. He knows nothing. And his “foreign policy team” (I’ll hire the best people, the best) includes a kid who lists Model UN as a major accomplishment. In 2012!!!!! Another guy on his team is a Lebanese former militia man who may have been involved in the Sabra and Shatila massacres. He’s not hiring the best people. He’s NOT. He’s hiring the WORST people!!! And his incoherence on these issues make it clear that he’s unfit to be Commander-in-Chief.

 

Israel and the Middle East

Which brings me to the Middle East. Trump says that “no one is more pro-Israel” than he is because he was the Grand Marshal of the Israel Day Parade in 2004, which he claims was a “dangerous” time to be pro-Israel. What is he even talking about? But anyway…up until his AIPAC speech, his position on Israel was to be neutral. Let’s even assume that he has “evolved” on this topic over the past…..month? Two months? Whatever.

His Middle East policy of non-intervention and his general attitude towards our allies would make things EXPONENTIALLY worse for Israel and for us. He wouldn’t have done the Iran deal, but now thinks we need to keep it. His abandonment of Egypt, Jordan and other moderate Arab nations means they will have to get their own nukes to counter Iran’s program. It means we will cede these countries into Russia or China’s sphere of influence. Hello Cold War Part Deux!

Trump’s abandonment of “nation building” means that any country we destroy during his supposedly “vicious” attacks on ISIS will become failed states (like what happened to Iraq after we left THANKS OBAMA!!!) and breeding grounds for fanatics. Bad for Israel. Bad for democracy. Bad for stability. Bad for America. JUST BAD BAD BAD.

 

Deficit Spending

He wants to “eliminate the deficit” by cutting taxes in the biggest tax cut ever. How will that eliminate the deficit (when his tax cuts will apparently add $10 trillion to it)? Economic growth “like you wouldn’t believe.” Look I love tax cuts. But for his plan to work, economic growth would have to be about 20% per year. I don’t think I need to tell you that is not only impossible, but would destroy the economy and run up inflation to the point that a loaf of bread would end up costing around $100. “Like you wouldn’t believe” indeed. No thanks. And actually on second thought…his tax plan is actually WORSE than Hillary’s.

 

Illegal Immigration

How about his signature issue, illegal immigration? He wants to build a wall with Mexico that Mexico will pay for. This is impossible. Then, he wants to deport 11 million people. Impossible. But what’s even worse is that he then wants to let a lot of them back in because his “big beautiful wall” will have a “big beautiful door” in it!!! What????? Huh????

 

International Trade

Trump wants to stop “China and Mexico” from “winning” all the time. Let’s forget for a moment that he could right now bring hundreds of jobs back to America without any red tape or Congressional approval…say by opening a Trump tie factory in Utah. Why doesn’t he just do that? Pay minimum wage. Just show people you’re serious about ANYTHING YOU ARE SAYING. ANYTHING. ANYTHING!!!!! But I digress.

What’s his plan to solve the trade deficit? Freeze Western Union payments to Mexico. Impose a massive tariff on imported goods from China. The first idea is impossible and insane and communist. The second idea…you want your prices on goods made in China to increase by roughly 45%? iPhones? Computers? Cars? Garlic? That would destroy the economy. Half the country would not be able to make ends meet…or companies would go bankrupt trying to make ends meet and lay off millions of people. Also, this is basically communism, did I mention that already?

 

Healthcare

He’s going to get rid of Obamacare and replace it with…what? Single payer system? He doesn’t want people “dying in the streets” – so is he guaranteeing them coverage? Isn’t that Obamacare? Lines around the states? Opening up coverage across state lines and increasing competition? Uh, ok. But that’s not going to be enough at this point to undo the last seven years of skyrocketing premiums. They should have done this in 2009 – when Republicans supported that plus tort reform being included in any healthcare legislation. Now, it’s too late to just fall back on seven year old ideas. No serious plan here. At all.

 

Abortion, Gay Marriage, 2nd Amendment

Social issues…he thinks women should be punished for getting abortions. But he’s pro-choice. Wait, no he isn’t, he’s pro-life. But he supports Planned Parenthood. Gay marriage, guns, what does he think about them? Who will he appoint as Supreme Court justices? Does he even know? He thinks judges “sign bills” and thinks his sister would make a great Supreme Court justice. She’s a huge liberal. But then he says he doesn’t want her to be on the Court. And then he talks about gun control with the NRA.

Whatever, I don’t care anyway because I’m pretty agnostic on this stuff. I wish the government would just let us be without telling us what to do. I only bring it up because no one, not you, not his supporters, not EVEN TRUMP knows where he stands on these issues. How can you consider voting for someone who himself doesn’t know where he stands on the issues? I do not know the answer to this question.

 

What would Abraham Lincoln say about Donald Trump?

What would Abraham Lincoln say about Donald Trump? #NeverTrump.

 

His Current Behavior

 

And let’s not give Trump a complete pass on his temperament and behavior. I promised I wouldn’t talk about his TV persona, etc. here and I won’t. Just his behavior during the campaign.

Trump keeps saying he can be “more presidential than anyone but Lincoln”. He can’t. He is unable to resist the urge to respond to any and every perceived slight. Judges, reporters, the handicapped, no one escapes this guy’s ire.

Do you want this guy dealing with world leaders? Putin? Kim Jong Un? Whoever or whatever is in charge of China? I can’t put it past him to tweet a nasty comment @Rouhani or @Sisi or @Trudeau or @WhoeverReallyRunsChina, if trade talks go poorly or if a once-in-a-generation crisis rears its ugly head. Can you? He’s just not responsible. He won’t unite the country. He will shoot off at the mouth every single time because he is, always has been and always will be, a tactless oaf. I cannot take that risk.

People who want to vote for Trump often tell me they “don’t believe he’ll be able to do half the things he says, but if he does any of them we’ll be better off than we are now.” WRONG. He won’t be able to do ANY of what he says because a) he doesn’t really believe in what he says, b) they’re mostly illegal under US law and c) voting for someone because you DON’T BELIEVE THEY WILL DO WHAT THEY SAY IS THE DUMBEST REASON TO VOTE FOR ANYONE IN HISTORY. AND!!!! Even if he COULD do…ANY OF THESE THINGS, they would almost ALL be terrible for the United States and the rest of the world! None of it is good or practical or realistic or possible! None!!

 

#NeverTrump

#NeverTrump means never, right? That leaves us without many alternatives at this point.

 

Worst. Election. Ever.

 

Have you gotten this far? Still reading? Great.

Because know this…I have been waiting for this election since 2008. Everyone knew Obama would win a re-election in 2012. Getting Bin Laden guaranteed it. And I knew that Hillary would almost certainly be coronated in 2016. And I have been waiting…for almost eight years to VOTE AGAINST HER.

With Romney as the nominee in 2012 and the Party moving closer to the center (here comes Rubio! Here comes Jeb! Here comes Kasich! Here comes Christie!) at least with how it communicates its positions…I couldn’t WAIT to see her wiped out in November. Couldn’t WAIT to see her day of reckoning for all the scandals and Benghazi and her embrace of Suha Arafat 20 years ago and her miserable turn as Secretary of State and then the emails…oh how excited I was to see a socially centrist, fiscal conservative, strong national defense candidate EAT HER FOR LUNCH during the debates and finally put an end to the social issue fear mongering of the Democratic Party once and for all.

I thought Jews, after eight years of Obama screwing up the Middle East and stabbing Israel in the back would be able to rally behind a moderate Republican and once and for all break the Democratic Party’s dominance of the Jewish vote (thereby showing them that abandoning Israel costs them votes!!!) going all the way back to FDR, who sat by and let 6 million of us get gassed and incinerated…

 

…and instead I’m going to have to not only vote for her, but ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO THE SAME. Do you know how hard this is for me? Do you have any idea?

 

Embrace The Horror

 

Hillary is terrible candidate, but at least she’s a responsible, well-educated person, with a voting record and literally the most experience a person could have going into a presidency. Truthfully her platform isn’t THAT bad for a Democrat, her tax plan wouldn’t affect me personally, even if I don’t think it will make any difference without serious entitlement reform. Her social issues? Eh. Those aren’t issues I vote on. And frankly, what does abortion or gay marriage matter when under a President Trump, Middle Eastern countries are arming themselves with nukes and pulling us into World War 3?

And her foreign policy positions are OK. They’re stronger than Obama’s and I’ve read a lot of articles that talk about how she was always pushing him to be more aggressive on the Arab Spring and stronger in the Middle East. He just didn’t listen because he SUCKS. None of it is anywhere CLOSE to what I want…but at least I know what it is and it should be an incremental improvement over what we have now. $15 an hour minimum wage, free college tuition, blah blah. That’s (hopefully) just to appeal to Sanders gullible voters. Whatever. These are just policy differences with a politician who has a record as a lifelong moderate. Email servers and Benghazi? Two years of investigations haven’t been able to prove anything. And at least I know that in a crisis she would at least think for more than 5 seconds before pushing the button. That alone makes her vastly superior to Trump.

I don’t like Hillary Clinton. I just don’t LIKE her. I don’t TRUST her. I never have. And I REALLY don’t like her Party and the direction it is going. And I can’t stand the fact that with her, the things I prioritize are buried under 100 tons of things she prioritizes that I don’t. But now, I have to hope she wins and does the right thing once she gets into the oval office.

That means doing whatever I can do help that happen. Staying home and not voting is not enough. Wasting my vote on a third party candidate is not enough.

Because for all the reasons I outlined above – and about 1,000 more – I am now and will forever be #NeverTrump. #NeverTrump means never. NEVER. And unlike the frauds in the conservative media or Party “leaders” who use that hashtag as a way to stir up support, I absolutely mean it.

 

-Liran K, Republican voter since 2004

 

Want to post your own #NeverTrump message? Leave a comment below or email us your thoughts.

Why I will never Support Trump

As a lifelong Republican, I cannot vote for Trump.

As a lifelong Republican, I cannot vote for Trump.

 

Since I first saw George W. Bush speak at the age of 8 in 1999, I have been a Republican. Through high school as I gravitated to books by authors such as Ayn Rand, Barry Goldwater, and the writings of Milton Friedman my conservatism only grew. Upon entering college having the opportunities to attend CPAC and Americans for Prosperity events fueled my activism even further.

I have worked for numerous Republican campaigns and advocacy groups, am a lifetime member of the NRA, and still revere Ronald Reagan as my personal hero. I am a Republican because I believe in limited government, lower taxes, and a strong national security including a robust military. I believe in the 2nd amendment, the right to life, and believe very strongly in personal freedom and responsibility.

It is for all these reasons that I, a staunch Republican must rebuke Donald J. Trump and urge my party to select another nominee at our convention in July.  Mr. Trump is the antithesis of what a Republican is, he is trying to establish an authoritarian, totalitarian regime, where guns are outlawed and the president will morph into a dictator.

Under a Trump regime America will lose all credibility and will be in constant peril. It is imperative as a nation that we not let this occur. Republicans lets unite around our party, the party of Lincoln and Reagan and not let a Judas take over. #NeverTrump #GOPWithHer

 

David P, Republican voter since 2007

 

Want to post your own #NeverTrump message? Leave a comment below or email us your thoughts.

Well I just agreed with Elizabeth FREAKIN Warren

From her comments at the American Constitutional Society (great name) today:

“Judge Curiel is one of countless American patriots who has spent decades quietly serving his country, sometimes at great risk to his own life,’’ Warren said. “Donald Trump is a loud, nasty, thin-skinned fraud who has never risked anything for anyone and serves nobody but himself.”

Ugh...get off my website Elizabeth Warren.

Ugh…get off my website Elizabeth Warren.

Congratulations Trump. You just made us agree with Elizabeth Warren. We HATE Elizabeth Warren.

Her approach to governance and positions on the federal government’s role in our lives makes our skin crawl. Her walkout on Netanyahu’s attempt to rally some common sense against the disastrous Iran nuclear deal was deplorable. Her alleged use of her allegedly fraudulent Native American heritage to get ahead is the worst kind Affirmative Action abuse that makes us Republicans want to vomit.

And here we are, quoting her.

Whatever…she BETTER not be Hillary’s running mate.

Screw you Donald.

UPDATE: Now we agree with Joe Biden too.

This is disgusting.

—————————————————

Show the world how EXCITED you are to betray your principles and vote for a Democrat. All thanks to Donald Fathead Trump. Get a shirt:

GOPWithHer t-shirt #NeverTrump #ImWithHer
GOPWithHer t-shirt #NeverTrump #ImWithHer by CTCMedia
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Embrace the horror. Show your support. Buy a shirt. Yay.

Available now in all sizes, colors and configurations through Zazzle.

GOPWithHer t-shirt #NeverTrump #ImWithHer
GOPWithHer t-shirt #NeverTrump #ImWithHer by CTCMedia
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If you have any issues with ordering let us know.

100% of net proceeds will go towards stopping Trump from being president. Depending on how easy or hard that is, some of the remaining proceeds may go towards helping REAL Republicans get elected to Congress. But most (if not all) will go towards efforts to help get Hillary elected.

Yippee.

What do you think? Would you rock this shirt? Let us know in the comments below. We sure will! Go Hillary!

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