GOPWithHer

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#GOPWithHer’s Official Electoral Map Prediction

Ok folks, here goes. Our thoughts have always been that if Hillary wins, it is more likely to come as a (relative) landslide than a narrow win. A close election favors Donald Trump and the prospect for that is too horrifying to let play out. Besides, there’s plenty of sites that will tell you what a close race looks like.

Here’s our best estimate (hope?) for how election night shapes up:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Some explanations:

I’m reasonably confident in this map based on three factors:

1. Latino surge gives Hillary a major boost in Florida and Arizona (which is a reach, but Latinos in Arizona are absolutely blowing away their 2012 levels).
2. Republican women in Ohio and Michigan fight off Trump’s incursions with their husbands.
3. Unbelievable Clinton ground game advantage (basically well oiled machine VS nothing) pushes her over the finish line in North Carolina, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

I think Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania will be the closest they’ve been in decades, but ultimately no cigar.

My guess is Florida will also be close, but not like in the past. Just way too many bad hombres and nasty Republican women that Trump has insulted and demeaned for 15 months that his Cuban support is the weakest its been for a Republican candidate in several cycles and female Republicans offset the angry white men he gets to come out of the woodwork. Also keep an eye on the “no political alliance” voters in Florida which skew more minority heavy than the rest of the electorate.

In North Carolina, African American early vote has been down, but that was also the case in Florida which ended up seeing significantly more Black voters than 2012. My guess is there is an African American surge in North Carolina, driven partially by Clinton’s ground game and righteous indignation over the voting shenanigans pulled by the state that kept a lot of polls closed during the first few days of early voting. Also, increases in college-educated whites and Asians in the research triangle means white vote in North Carolina looks more like Virginia than South Carolina.

Iowa isn’t really that close in the end.

Trump gets his 1 electoral vote from Maine. Way to go, jerk.

Wild Cards:

Arizona – I don’t really feel good about this. This is a reach, but made possible by shockingly close polls, plus Latino surge which makes the electorate look different from those polls.

Georgia – really close polling here + Latino surge (albeit much smaller portion of the population than Arizona and Florida) make it interesting. More likely than not to stay red, but humiliatingly close.

Texas – Trump will win. But also, closest it’s been…EVER.

Alaska – believe it or not, the most recent telephone poll in Alaska actually had Clinton AHEAD. There’s also some weird issue with Trump’s incompetent campaign somehow screwing up the ballot for him. Also the Inuit population is…not enamored with Trump. High likelihood they would not be showing up in phone polls as well.

Ultimate net margin of victory for the national vote: 5.5% with Trump’s worst nightmare coming true as Latinos get revenge for his idiotic taco bowl photo and 50,000 other indignities suffered during this horrific election cycle.

Despite the map, I expect a lot of close races in swing states. The national margin comes more from running up the score in places like Texas, California, Georgia…places that ultimately won’t make a difference in the Electoral Vote.

Fake News Headline on Wednesday Morning: Bad Hombres and Nasty Women Defeat Angry White Man to Send First Woman to White House.

Republicans Around America Are Rejecting Trump: Part 4

This is the fourth in what will be a multi-part series of thoughts and images from Republicans rejecting Donald Trump around the United States. Are you #GOPWithHer? Leave us a comment below or tweet us @GOPWithHer and we’ll get your image and story online! The resistance is real and it’s GROWING!

sarabeth

“My oldest child is in fourth grade. We talk about civics and what it means to be a good citizen. I refuse to tell my children I voted for a candidate who is a bully, a bigot and an abuser.” #gopwithher #nevertrump

Sarabeth, Ohio

I’m A Republican Who Spent My Saturday Getting Out The Vote For Hillary Clinton. This is Why.

#GOPWithHer got out the vote in Philadelphia. Pictured are Ariel, Liran and Kodiak.

#GOPWithHer got out the vote in Philadelphia. Pictured are Ariel, Liran and Kodiak.

Yesterday, my wife and I (not pictured above) participated in something I never thought I would do. I was one of numerous Republicans getting out the vote for Hillary Clinton. It’s hard to describe just how unlikely a moment this was for me, but I’ve covered that on this blog before.

And yet, I did it with no qualms. Quite the opposite, it was with a sense of pride, honor and duty that I felt I was participating in the effort to prevent a madman with dictatorial tendencies from becoming the President of the United States. In many ways, it was a gratifying, cathartic experience to put country over political affiliation. However, it was also a frightening experience, because it illustrated just what will happen if we lose this election and allow Donald Trump to dictate our daily lives.

You see, while most of the day passed without incident, the entire tone of the day was trampled upon when we had the misfortune of being accosted by some absolutely livid Trump supporters who did everything in their power to intimidate us into staying out of their neighborhood. Be forewarned, extremely foul language follows.

As we worked our way down the street, we were spotted by several men (at one point there were about five, while at others there were two) who began to scream at us from afar while waving their Trump/Pence signs:

“TRUMP! TRUMP! This is a Trump neighborhood here! Stay out of here!”

Fine so far, while mildly disturbing/threatening, we had no issue with people expressing themselves. We still have freedom of speech in this country. Also, there were a few pro-Hillary and Black Lives Matter signs on houses near them (they were the only Trump supporters we could see) so it was clear they were not representing the neighborhood.

“TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!”

However, as we got closer and crossed over to their side of the street, they became even more belligerent. As we approached a house two doors down from them, they continued:

“Nobody’s here that wants to see you people! This is a Trump neighborhood!”

Now we had to walk past them – actually through them since they would not move aside for us – and they really kicked it up a notch:

“What’s Hillary Clinton ever done for this country? No, tell me. I want to know!”

To which we responded that we had no desire to engage with them. Our goal was just to knock on doors of potential Hillary supporters, not get into a fight with Trump supporters. Engaging them would only waste time we would otherwise be canvassing – which is exactly what they wanted.

Well, that only set them off into a rage meltdown:

“Fucking white liberal snob bitch! Fucking liberal white snobs come around here every four years for Obama. I hate white liberal snobs!”

At this point we were past them, but still only a few doors down, trying to talk to an elderly man who told us he was too old to vote before closing the door. My suspicion is that being within earshot of these people, who by now were in a full on frenzy, goosestepping up and down the block and throwing glass bottles, all while screaming profanities at the top of their lungs, this man was frankly afraid to tell us what he would be doing.

Now they were screaming how they would be in jail for what Hillary has done, that a Trump reckoning was coming and that:

“Fucking college students coming through here every four years are ruining this country!”

As we moved further down the block we could still hear them screaming over and over.

Now it’s important to note that these guys did not explicitly threaten violence against us. However, the neighborhood we were in was decidedly mixed, with probably about 65% minorities to 35% whites. Others in the neighborhood told us that it was already a “war zone” due to gang violence and drugs. Even as we spoke to another person on his doorstep on another block, another Trump supporter walked by yelling “Trump! Trump! Trump!” at us.

Don't boo. Vote. And get out the vote.

Don’t boo. Vote. And get out the vote.

Here’s the scary part.

What happens on election night? Regardless of who wins, do you think these pro-Trump goons are going to keep quiet? This is what Trump has unleashed on America. The death of civility is the true horror of this election. If they were so willing to try and keep us out of their neighborhoods, what makes you think they won’t try and keep their elderly neighbors from participating in the vote? It was like seeing the online Trump Trolls who have ruined Reddit, Twitter and nearly every comment section on the internet – but in REAL LIFE.

Here’s the even scarier part – and this is literally what keeps me up at night.

What happens with people like this if Trump wins? What happens with people who are WORSE than this if Trump wins? It was clear, from their behavior, that these people believed that for the first time in their lives, that they had the power. That it was THEIR time. This wasn’t about patriotism. This wasn’t about American exceptionalism. This was about REVENGE. This wasn’t REALLY about Clinton. It was about taking power for themselves. It was about fighting back against the minorities “ruining” their neighborhood. It was about fighting back against college students “ruining” the country. It was about fighting back against every “bitch” they were unable to dominate in the past. Hillary Clinton just embodies their failures for them.

There were no conservative values here. There were no values to speak of at all, just a lust for power. A testosterone-fueled rage-fest against everyone who isn’t like them – championed by their avatar, Donald Trump, who continues to empower their hope of being at the top of the food chain. These people had no desire to live with their neighbors. They wanted to DOMINATE them.

Can you imagine what four years of Donald Trump as president, fueling this behavior, will do to neighborhoods like this? THAT is what’s frightening. THAT is why I created this website and THAT is why, no matter what anyone says to me, I will not be deterred. WE will not be deterred.

There is no more doubt. No more depression about our lack of options. No more stages of grief.

Donald Trump CANNOT empower men like this to spread their own self-destruction all across the United States.

Hillary Clinton MUST be our next President.

#GOPWithHer

Republicans Around America Are Rejecting Trump: Part 2

This is the second in what will be a multi-part series of thoughts and images from Republicans rejecting Donald Trump around the United States. Are you #GOPWithHer? Leave us a comment below or tweet us @GOPWithHer and we’ll get your image and story online! The resistance is real and it’s GROWING!

image1

“I’m a pro-life evangelical, straight-ticket Republican voter, but this year I simply cannot do it. As a Christian, an attorney, a mother, a woman, a Republican, and simply as a human being–everything in me protests Donald Trump. I don’t know what the future holds for the GOP and conservative American ideals, but I can clearly see that Trump at the helm spells its demise. He must be defeated.”

Rachel, Ohio

Hillary/Trump Debate LiveBlog: Round 3!

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IT’S FINALLY ALMOST OVER.

Join us at 10 minutes to 9 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 19th, for our LIVE coverage of the THIRD Presidential Debate. There will be alcohol. And almost certainly YET another Trump meltdown. But at least it’s the last one!!!! Sweet mercy is almost here!

Hillary Strikes Debate Night Blow

Monday night was a horror show for many Republicans across the country, myself included. To see Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as the two candidates on the debate stage was a living nightmare for me. With that said of the two people on the stage, it was clear that Hillary Clinton was the more qualified; both on policy and temperament to be President of the United States of America.

 

Clinton VS Trump

Hillary had Trump on the ropes from the “opening bell”. With Trump backpedaling on defense and with the spotlight shining on only two candidates, Mr. Trump was not able to debate in his typical “smoke and mirror” style. When pressed for specific policy answers by moderator Lester Holt or by Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump seldom had an answer deeper than “because we will”.

Hillary hammered Trump on his “birther history” and deftly tied that into his and his family’s history of racism through their discriminatory rental history. Mr. Trump has to set the record straight, why does he think President Obama wasn’t born in this country? Why did he and his father not rent to African-Americans in the 1970s?

The debate showed us what we have all feared to be true. Trump simply does not have the temperament to be POTUS. His eye-rolls, sarcasm, and body language were anything but presidential. You can say a lot of things about Mrs. Clinton (such as the fact that she is dead wrong on the Iran deal and ending stop and frisk), but she keeps proving that she has presidential temperament.

As someone who works for a small business, it was appalling to me to hear Trump say that it was okay not to pay a contractor if you are not satisfied with their work. Small businesses depend on progress and final payments to pay their bills and feed their employees’ families. Is Mr. Trump saying that a contract is not binding? We need an answer to this question.

“The Donald” lied again regarding his support of the War in Iraq. Thanks to Howard Stern’s interviewing prowess, we have recordings of Mr. Trump on the record stating his support for the war which he now says he was against. Will he answer why he continues to lie about this?

Trump also never responded to Hillary’s claims that his tax plan will add $5 trillion to the national debt. He needs to answer this question, if not we must assume that this assertion is true.

The bottom line is this is the Worst. Election. Ever. Hillary is a very flawed candidate, but is someone that I would trust with the nuclear codes much more than Mr. Trump. To me this is the deciding factor when faced with two terribly flawed candidates. As a party, we must work to heal from the Trump disaster and focus on common sense economic reform and keeping our country safe. #NeverTrump #GOPWithHer

 

Hillary/Trump Debate LiveBlog: Round 1!

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Join us at 10 minutes to 9 pm Eastern Time on Monday, September 26th, for our LIVE coverage of the first Presidential Debate. There will be alcohol.

Does Donald Trump Want to be King?

One of the first things every elementary schooler learns in an American history course is that America fought the Revolutionary War against the British to gain their freedom and end the rule of monarchs. George Washington, when offered a third presidential term, said no as he didn’t want the American public to view him as a monarch. Now, in 2016, are we seeing a candidate that wants to run our country as his own Fiefdom?

Donald J. Trump has consistently proved that he has no interest in promoting a democratic regime. If he were to be elected he has shown every sign of his intent to turn our great republic into the “Trump Kingdom of America”. While this may sound dramatic, let’s look at the facts.

  • Trump has shown throughout his campaign that he is a bigot and sexist; not exactly democratic values
  • See, #NeverTrump
  • Trump has flip-flopped numerous times, on numerous important issues, such as second amendment rights, and his refusal to take a stand on our greatest ally Israel
  • Not immediately denouncing noted KKK leader and hate-mongering David Duke
  • Claiming his campaign was “self-financed”
  • Lying about meeting Putin during a 60 Minutes taping
  • Lying about predicting the danger of Osama Bin Laden
  • Lying about seeing footage of the Iranian money drop

The lies, flip-flopping, and degradation of millions of Americans, leads to a candidate that is certainly not qualified to be the President of the greatest country in the world. Mr. Trump’s values are certainly far from Republican and would make our party’s flag-bearers; Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater, and Abraham Lincoln cringe. The circus campaign of Donald J. Trump must be denounced by Republicans all across America and funding from the RNC needs to be immediately ceased. Only when this occurs will the message be sent that the Republican party and the United States of America does not want a Trump Kingdom of America.

 

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I’m A Republican Advocate Named After Ronald Reagan – #ImWithHer Anyway

#GOPWithHer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By: Veronica Brown

 

I’ve been a Republican my whole life-and by whole life, I mean whole life; my sister and I are even named after Ronald Reagan (Ver-RON-ica and Reganne – get it?).

 

I was that kid who in first grade proudly slapped a Dole ‘96 bumper sticker on her pencil case. I actively engaged in political debates with my liberal hippie teachers throughout middle school and high school in Seattle, and for college I picked the most politically active school in the country (Raise High, GW!) to continue fighting for the fundamental beliefs I hold so dear. Needless to say, I’ve been a warrior for conservative values every step of the way.

 

I’ve been waiting for this election for the past eight years. Like most conservatives, I believe Barack Obama’s presidency has been a disaster for our country. A failed healthcare system, an economy that hasn’t recovered as well as it should have, and continued overreach through executive orders have set America on a course for failure. I couldn’t wait to take our country back and elect a Republican who would advance conservative ideals and put us on the right track.

 

But instead, this year I’m voting for Hillary Clinton.

 

This decision did not happen overnight. I’ve grappled with my options for months, losing sleep over what to do. Countless conversations with friends (conservative and liberal) going back and forth, weighing third party candidates, and even considering sitting this one out – finally led me to the decision to put allegiances aside and vote for a woman I’ve despised for years.

 

Donald Trump’s rhetoric has gone too far. His comments, particularly about women and minorities, are pure hatred. When has it ever been okay for a public figure to say such things?

 

We, the party of Lincoln and Reagan, cannot let this tyrant of a man win. He has taken away any hope we have as a party to move our country forward. His childish tactics, brash words, and lack of knowledge and policy plans are setting us up for catastrophe, both as a country and as leaders of the free world.

 

I fundamentally disagree with almost everything Hillary stands for. You won’t see me cheering for policies like free college, raising the minimum wage or universal healthcare. But my reasoning is simple: I’m voting for her because it’s the only sure-fire way to vote against Trump.

 

It’s time for us to put party politics aside and choose reason over rhetoric, experience over ignorance and love over hate.

 

This year #ImWithHer.

 

Like many of us, Veronica Brown is utterly dismayed by this election’s race to the bottom. She can found on Twitter @VeronicaBrown08

Want to get involved or contribute your own thoughts on why you can never vote for Trump? Leave us a comment below!

#DumpTrump is Dead. Long Live #GOPWithHer.

We never thought it had much of a chance, unfortunately. It was a valiant effort from our brothers and sisters at the convention floor today and during the Rules Committee meetings last week, but it’s been clear for a long time that Donald Trump has some kind of horrific blackmail images of Reince Preibus assaulting a baby seal while pledging allegiance to the Taliban.

This website was set up in May, with the sincerest hope that we would never actually reach this point. We have been dreading this every moment of every day since the Indiana primary farce.

And yet, here we are.

It's going to be a long couple of weeks.

It’s going to be a long couple of weeks.

Now what, guys? There’s no one left to stop this insanity. The fight on the floor of the convention at least showed the world that we are NOT a united party. So there’s that. But it’s time to get serious.

With word out there from Trump’s ghostwriter that if he wrote “The Art of the Deal” today he would call it “The Sociopath,” what are we to do? Fall in line with these Soviet-style tactics from the Republican “leadership” ? Vote for Donald Trump to gain command of the most powerful military in the history of humanity? NO THANK YOU.

It may take a lot of alcohol, but we’re with her.

Embrace the horror and keep checking back here for updates from us as we live blog our way through what is sure to be a disgusting Donald Trump nomination acceptance speech on Thursday night.

Oh and if you’re out there today (or any other day) chanting “We want Trump” – you are a huge tool. Vote for the guy grudgingly if you must, but to be INSPIRED by this con man thief? GTFO of here.

#NeverTrump

#GOPWithHer

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Get involved. It will help ease the pain to be amongst others like you.