GOPWithHer

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#GOPWithHer’s Official Electoral Map Prediction

Ok folks, here goes. Our thoughts have always been that if Hillary wins, it is more likely to come as a (relative) landslide than a narrow win. A close election favors Donald Trump and the prospect for that is too horrifying to let play out. Besides, there’s plenty of sites that will tell you what a close race looks like.

Here’s our best estimate (hope?) for how election night shapes up:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Some explanations:

I’m reasonably confident in this map based on three factors:

1. Latino surge gives Hillary a major boost in Florida and Arizona (which is a reach, but Latinos in Arizona are absolutely blowing away their 2012 levels).
2. Republican women in Ohio and Michigan fight off Trump’s incursions with their husbands.
3. Unbelievable Clinton ground game advantage (basically well oiled machine VS nothing) pushes her over the finish line in North Carolina, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

I think Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania will be the closest they’ve been in decades, but ultimately no cigar.

My guess is Florida will also be close, but not like in the past. Just way too many bad hombres and nasty Republican women that Trump has insulted and demeaned for 15 months that his Cuban support is the weakest its been for a Republican candidate in several cycles and female Republicans offset the angry white men he gets to come out of the woodwork. Also keep an eye on the “no political alliance” voters in Florida which skew more minority heavy than the rest of the electorate.

In North Carolina, African American early vote has been down, but that was also the case in Florida which ended up seeing significantly more Black voters than 2012. My guess is there is an African American surge in North Carolina, driven partially by Clinton’s ground game and righteous indignation over the voting shenanigans pulled by the state that kept a lot of polls closed during the first few days of early voting. Also, increases in college-educated whites and Asians in the research triangle means white vote in North Carolina looks more like Virginia than South Carolina.

Iowa isn’t really that close in the end.

Trump gets his 1 electoral vote from Maine. Way to go, jerk.

Wild Cards:

Arizona – I don’t really feel good about this. This is a reach, but made possible by shockingly close polls, plus Latino surge which makes the electorate look different from those polls.

Georgia – really close polling here + Latino surge (albeit much smaller portion of the population than Arizona and Florida) make it interesting. More likely than not to stay red, but humiliatingly close.

Texas – Trump will win. But also, closest it’s been…EVER.

Alaska – believe it or not, the most recent telephone poll in Alaska actually had Clinton AHEAD. There’s also some weird issue with Trump’s incompetent campaign somehow screwing up the ballot for him. Also the Inuit population is…not enamored with Trump. High likelihood they would not be showing up in phone polls as well.

Ultimate net margin of victory for the national vote: 5.5% with Trump’s worst nightmare coming true as Latinos get revenge for his idiotic taco bowl photo and 50,000 other indignities suffered during this horrific election cycle.

Despite the map, I expect a lot of close races in swing states. The national margin comes more from running up the score in places like Texas, California, Georgia…places that ultimately won’t make a difference in the Electoral Vote.

Fake News Headline on Wednesday Morning: Bad Hombres and Nasty Women Defeat Angry White Man to Send First Woman to White House.

Republicans Around America Are Rejecting Trump: Part 4

This is the fourth in what will be a multi-part series of thoughts and images from Republicans rejecting Donald Trump around the United States. Are you #GOPWithHer? Leave us a comment below or tweet us @GOPWithHer and we’ll get your image and story online! The resistance is real and it’s GROWING!

sarabeth

“My oldest child is in fourth grade. We talk about civics and what it means to be a good citizen. I refuse to tell my children I voted for a candidate who is a bully, a bigot and an abuser.” #gopwithher #nevertrump

Sarabeth, Ohio

I’m A Republican Who Spent My Saturday Getting Out The Vote For Hillary Clinton. This is Why.

#GOPWithHer got out the vote in Philadelphia. Pictured are Ariel, Liran and Kodiak.

#GOPWithHer got out the vote in Philadelphia. Pictured are Ariel, Liran and Kodiak.

Yesterday, my wife and I (not pictured above) participated in something I never thought I would do. I was one of numerous Republicans getting out the vote for Hillary Clinton. It’s hard to describe just how unlikely a moment this was for me, but I’ve covered that on this blog before.

And yet, I did it with no qualms. Quite the opposite, it was with a sense of pride, honor and duty that I felt I was participating in the effort to prevent a madman with dictatorial tendencies from becoming the President of the United States. In many ways, it was a gratifying, cathartic experience to put country over political affiliation. However, it was also a frightening experience, because it illustrated just what will happen if we lose this election and allow Donald Trump to dictate our daily lives.

You see, while most of the day passed without incident, the entire tone of the day was trampled upon when we had the misfortune of being accosted by some absolutely livid Trump supporters who did everything in their power to intimidate us into staying out of their neighborhood. Be forewarned, extremely foul language follows.

As we worked our way down the street, we were spotted by several men (at one point there were about five, while at others there were two) who began to scream at us from afar while waving their Trump/Pence signs:

“TRUMP! TRUMP! This is a Trump neighborhood here! Stay out of here!”

Fine so far, while mildly disturbing/threatening, we had no issue with people expressing themselves. We still have freedom of speech in this country. Also, there were a few pro-Hillary and Black Lives Matter signs on houses near them (they were the only Trump supporters we could see) so it was clear they were not representing the neighborhood.

“TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!”

However, as we got closer and crossed over to their side of the street, they became even more belligerent. As we approached a house two doors down from them, they continued:

“Nobody’s here that wants to see you people! This is a Trump neighborhood!”

Now we had to walk past them – actually through them since they would not move aside for us – and they really kicked it up a notch:

“What’s Hillary Clinton ever done for this country? No, tell me. I want to know!”

To which we responded that we had no desire to engage with them. Our goal was just to knock on doors of potential Hillary supporters, not get into a fight with Trump supporters. Engaging them would only waste time we would otherwise be canvassing – which is exactly what they wanted.

Well, that only set them off into a rage meltdown:

“Fucking white liberal snob bitch! Fucking liberal white snobs come around here every four years for Obama. I hate white liberal snobs!”

At this point we were past them, but still only a few doors down, trying to talk to an elderly man who told us he was too old to vote before closing the door. My suspicion is that being within earshot of these people, who by now were in a full on frenzy, goosestepping up and down the block and throwing glass bottles, all while screaming profanities at the top of their lungs, this man was frankly afraid to tell us what he would be doing.

Now they were screaming how they would be in jail for what Hillary has done, that a Trump reckoning was coming and that:

“Fucking college students coming through here every four years are ruining this country!”

As we moved further down the block we could still hear them screaming over and over.

Now it’s important to note that these guys did not explicitly threaten violence against us. However, the neighborhood we were in was decidedly mixed, with probably about 65% minorities to 35% whites. Others in the neighborhood told us that it was already a “war zone” due to gang violence and drugs. Even as we spoke to another person on his doorstep on another block, another Trump supporter walked by yelling “Trump! Trump! Trump!” at us.

Don't boo. Vote. And get out the vote.

Don’t boo. Vote. And get out the vote.

Here’s the scary part.

What happens on election night? Regardless of who wins, do you think these pro-Trump goons are going to keep quiet? This is what Trump has unleashed on America. The death of civility is the true horror of this election. If they were so willing to try and keep us out of their neighborhoods, what makes you think they won’t try and keep their elderly neighbors from participating in the vote? It was like seeing the online Trump Trolls who have ruined Reddit, Twitter and nearly every comment section on the internet – but in REAL LIFE.

Here’s the even scarier part – and this is literally what keeps me up at night.

What happens with people like this if Trump wins? What happens with people who are WORSE than this if Trump wins? It was clear, from their behavior, that these people believed that for the first time in their lives, that they had the power. That it was THEIR time. This wasn’t about patriotism. This wasn’t about American exceptionalism. This was about REVENGE. This wasn’t REALLY about Clinton. It was about taking power for themselves. It was about fighting back against the minorities “ruining” their neighborhood. It was about fighting back against college students “ruining” the country. It was about fighting back against every “bitch” they were unable to dominate in the past. Hillary Clinton just embodies their failures for them.

There were no conservative values here. There were no values to speak of at all, just a lust for power. A testosterone-fueled rage-fest against everyone who isn’t like them – championed by their avatar, Donald Trump, who continues to empower their hope of being at the top of the food chain. These people had no desire to live with their neighbors. They wanted to DOMINATE them.

Can you imagine what four years of Donald Trump as president, fueling this behavior, will do to neighborhoods like this? THAT is what’s frightening. THAT is why I created this website and THAT is why, no matter what anyone says to me, I will not be deterred. WE will not be deterred.

There is no more doubt. No more depression about our lack of options. No more stages of grief.

Donald Trump CANNOT empower men like this to spread their own self-destruction all across the United States.

Hillary Clinton MUST be our next President.

#GOPWithHer

Republicans Around America Are Rejecting Trump: Part 3

This is the third in what will be a multi-part series of thoughts and images from Republicans rejecting Donald Trump around the United States. Are you #GOPWithHer? Leave us a comment below or tweet us @GOPWithHer and we’ll get your image and story online! The resistance is real and it’s GROWING!

gopwithher-anna

“I can’t vote for a sexist, racist man who brags about assaulting women. Country before party.”

Anna, Illinois

Republicans Around America Are Rejecting Trump: Part 2

This is the second in what will be a multi-part series of thoughts and images from Republicans rejecting Donald Trump around the United States. Are you #GOPWithHer? Leave us a comment below or tweet us @GOPWithHer and we’ll get your image and story online! The resistance is real and it’s GROWING!

image1

“I’m a pro-life evangelical, straight-ticket Republican voter, but this year I simply cannot do it. As a Christian, an attorney, a mother, a woman, a Republican, and simply as a human being–everything in me protests Donald Trump. I don’t know what the future holds for the GOP and conservative American ideals, but I can clearly see that Trump at the helm spells its demise. He must be defeated.”

Rachel, Ohio

Republicans Around America Are Rejecting Trump: Part 1

This is the first in what will be a multi-part series of thoughts and images from Republicans rejecting Donald Trump around the United States. Are you #GOPWithHer? Leave us a comment below or tweet us @GOPWithHer and we’ll get your image and story online! The resistance is real and it’s GROWING!

image1

“I’m no Hillary apologist, but Trump offends me to my very core. I think all politics and social systems carry inherent flaws, but this is the first time I’ve been scared by the prospect of a candidate attaining the office of President.” #GOPwithHer

Nathan, Ohio

Hillary/Trump Debate LiveBlog: Round 3!

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IT’S FINALLY ALMOST OVER.

Join us at 10 minutes to 9 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 19th, for our LIVE coverage of the THIRD Presidential Debate. There will be alcohol. And almost certainly YET another Trump meltdown. But at least it’s the last one!!!! Sweet mercy is almost here!

Hillary/Trump Debate LiveBlog: Round 2!

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Join us at 10 minutes to 9 pm Eastern Time on Sunday, October 9th, for our LIVE coverage of the SECOND Presidential Debate. There will be alcohol. And almost certainly another Trump meltdown.

Donald Trump And The 47 Percent: The Most Shocking Thing About His ‘That’s Because I’m Smart’ admission

Did Trump just admit he is one of the 47 percent who pays no taxes?

Did Trump just admit he is one of the 47 percent who pays no taxes?

It’s been clear for a long time now that Donald Trump and Mitt Romney could not more different as Republican nominees. For one thing, Romney was not completely off-the-wall and unprepared during his first debate with President Obama. For another, whatever issues Romney had getting the female vote, with his “binders full of women” and subsequent (unfair) vilification, Trump is in a different galaxy of misogyny with his “pigs, slobs and dogs.”

But perhaps the most striking difference when it comes to their gaffes, is that while Romney was attacked for saying that “47 percent of Americans pay no income tax,” no one could have imagined one of the people he was talking about would end being his successor for the Republican nomination just four years later. If Trump really pays nothing in income taxes, that would put him in the very same bracket as the people Romney said would never vote for him anyway. No wonder they hate each others’ guts.

Think about that for a minute though. When Romney made that comment, which was a major problem for his campaign, he was referring to Americans who are so poor that their tax deductions exceed their tax burden. Generally when we think of “the 47 percent” we are talking about people who are on the low end of making a five figure salary.

Not billionaires.

And if you asked the average “47 percenter” how they feel about not paying any taxes, they won’t tell you it’s because they’re “smart.”

It’s because they have no money.

They don’t go around gloating about it.

Romney lost in part because his comments were perceived as tone deaf towards the plight of poor and lower-middle class Americans. When Romney released his tax returns, partially in response to the outrage over his comments, it created an even greater bloodbath once everyone found he only paid a 13% effective tax rate.

Well, now Trump has effectively confirmed that he pays almost no taxes at all. He himself is a member of the 47 percent!

Trump has risen, in part, because of his ability to capitalize on the misery of these same people. Yet even as he continues to not only be tone deaf, but to actually sneer at them, they continue to support him. “Yes,” he seems to say, “not only am I richer than you, not only am I SMARTER than you, but I also have managed to manipulate the system so that I get the same limited benefits you do even though I don’t even need them. Now vote for me, idiots.”

And yet they still do.

What will it take?

Hillary Strikes Debate Night Blow

Monday night was a horror show for many Republicans across the country, myself included. To see Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as the two candidates on the debate stage was a living nightmare for me. With that said of the two people on the stage, it was clear that Hillary Clinton was the more qualified; both on policy and temperament to be President of the United States of America.

 

Clinton VS Trump

Hillary had Trump on the ropes from the “opening bell”. With Trump backpedaling on defense and with the spotlight shining on only two candidates, Mr. Trump was not able to debate in his typical “smoke and mirror” style. When pressed for specific policy answers by moderator Lester Holt or by Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump seldom had an answer deeper than “because we will”.

Hillary hammered Trump on his “birther history” and deftly tied that into his and his family’s history of racism through their discriminatory rental history. Mr. Trump has to set the record straight, why does he think President Obama wasn’t born in this country? Why did he and his father not rent to African-Americans in the 1970s?

The debate showed us what we have all feared to be true. Trump simply does not have the temperament to be POTUS. His eye-rolls, sarcasm, and body language were anything but presidential. You can say a lot of things about Mrs. Clinton (such as the fact that she is dead wrong on the Iran deal and ending stop and frisk), but she keeps proving that she has presidential temperament.

As someone who works for a small business, it was appalling to me to hear Trump say that it was okay not to pay a contractor if you are not satisfied with their work. Small businesses depend on progress and final payments to pay their bills and feed their employees’ families. Is Mr. Trump saying that a contract is not binding? We need an answer to this question.

“The Donald” lied again regarding his support of the War in Iraq. Thanks to Howard Stern’s interviewing prowess, we have recordings of Mr. Trump on the record stating his support for the war which he now says he was against. Will he answer why he continues to lie about this?

Trump also never responded to Hillary’s claims that his tax plan will add $5 trillion to the national debt. He needs to answer this question, if not we must assume that this assertion is true.

The bottom line is this is the Worst. Election. Ever. Hillary is a very flawed candidate, but is someone that I would trust with the nuclear codes much more than Mr. Trump. To me this is the deciding factor when faced with two terribly flawed candidates. As a party, we must work to heal from the Trump disaster and focus on common sense economic reform and keeping our country safe. #NeverTrump #GOPWithHer

 

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